"So what's that?" I asked, gesturing at a bowl of grayish fleshy ribbons with little spikes. It was one of the many tough-to-identify animal parts cramming the Lazy Susan. Zhang Haiqing, deputy director of the Foreign and Overseas Chinese Affairs Office, Chongqing Municipal People's Government, mulled the question for a minute. A gracious host to a group of journalists who had traveled to Chongqing, Zhang had lived in Seattle in the 1990s. He probably intuited the squeamishness of the visiting Americans. ( Click here to follow Daniel Gross ).
In Shanghai, which is China's New York, locals and expats are doing their best to foist American-style consumerism onto China's rising masses—with mixed results. Starbucks has opened several hundred stores, even though China has no coffee-drinking culture to speak of. As it spreads into China, Toys "R" Us is trying to convince higher-income Chinese parents that toys are a part of a childhood, not a distraction from preparation for the all-important national college entrance exams. Dickie Yip, executive vice president at Bank of Communications, lamented that 80 percent of the 11 million Chinese people who have opened up credit card accounts with the bank pay off their accounts in full every month. "We're encouraging our best customers not to repay," he said. (Click here to follow Daniel Gross)
These are grim times for American executives. The public is angry, and consumers are holding on to every nickel. It's hard to escape the sense that the economic future may be less comfortable than the past. But not all American managers are gloomy. "Optimism is higher than it was last year," says Brenda Lei Foster, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai. A survey of its 370 members found that more than 90 percent are optimistic about the next five years. The reason: instead of simply shipping goods made in China back to the U.S., "companies here [are] focusing on the Chinese domestic market." ( Click here to follow Daniel Gross ).
Economists, politicians, and shoppers focus so much on the massive flood of Chinese imports that we end up paying too little attention to the products, services, and business concepts exported from the United States to China. The vast differential in income between the United States and China has precluded a rampant growth in U.S. exports to China. U.S.-made cars, American doctors, and steakhouses remain far too expensive to appeal to the typical Chinese consumer. ( Click here to follow Daniel Gross ).
Like some gothic serial novelist, the Bureau of Labor Statistics delivers another chapter of the same grim tale on the first Friday of every month. In October the unemployment rate spiked to 10.2 percent, the highest since April 1983. Since December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 7.3 million. The ratio of unemployed workers to job openings is 6.1 to 1; in December 2007 it was 1.71 to 1. ( Click here to follow Daniel Gross )
The ability to blast messages to large numbers of people at very little cost has been a boon to marketers, although it is frequently inefficient and always annoying. The overwhelming majority of customers brush off the pitches, reminders, come-ons, exhortations—Subscribe to our magazine! Stop Nancy Pelosi! Buy gold!—that arrive via e-mail and text message. Like older forms of direct marketing (telemarketing, direct mail), texting and e-mails are a low-percentage business. (Story continued below...)
In a span of just three years, hedge-fund manager John Paulson went from practically unknown to practically unparalleled. After a series of smart bets against the housing market made Paulson's hedge fund billions of dollars—including days where it made more than $1 billion—he earned a place alongside George Soros and Warren Buffett as an oracle of investing. In his new book, The Greatest Trade Ever , Gregory Zuckerman, a reporter at The Wall Street Journal, examines how the unlikely team of Paulson and assistant Paolo Pellegrini—as well as a few other investors—bucked conventional wisdom and saw through the housing hype. ( Click here to follow Daniel Gross ).
A once endangered species is staging a robust comeback: the deficit hawk. Hunted nearly to extinction during the Bush years, many varieties not seen in Washington in a decade are now perching on branches and dropping their wisdom. Look, there's the Puff-Chested Congressional Peacock Hawk, strutting around Sunday-morning television-show sets complaining about pork while emitting loud honks upon the receipt of stimulus funds. The Furrowed-Brow Warbler Hawk (natural habitat: the op-ed pages) loathes deficit spending for the purpose of funding social insurance, but loves it when it's used to finance military actions abroad. The Blue-Bellied Partisan Hawk nests in think tanks; it goes mute when members of its own party run the show but squawks loudly when opponents run up debt. And on Nov. 3, birders sighted the rare Skinny Parrot Hawk, which repeats back the calls about fiscal probity. Said President Obama: "The government is going to have to get serious about reducing our debt levels." ( Click here to follow Daniel Gross ).
In the past year, distance from the U.S. has proved a great insulator from economic pain. China and Australia, literally on the other side of the globe, are humming along, while Mexico is suffering from a decline in U.S. imports. But our NAFTA neighbor to the north, Canada, has emerged from the morass in better shape than any developed economy. Since its brief recession ended this summer, Canada has been creating jobs (31,000 in September). The Canadian dollar--the loonie--is soaring against our dollar. "There is a buzz in Canada right now, which is as far apart as you could ever be from what's happening south of the border," said David Rosenberg, chief economist of Toronto-based asset manager Gluskin Sheff.
Here's a puzzle: The stock markets are doing very well, yet the performance of the underlying economy doesn't seem to justify optimism. The buoyant S&P 500 has risen 53 percent since the March bottom. And while the economy expanded at a 3.5 percent rate in the third quarter, unemployment is high, incomes are stagnant, and consumers are shaky. (Click here to follow Daniel Gross)